Realpolitik Expert: Daniel W. Drezner in Today's Post -- Biden Must Be Re-Elected

Drezner Prediction of a Strange World -- Political-Economy of a Trump Presidency

Daniel W. Drezner is Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the world’s premiere graduate college of diplomacy: The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Tufts University).

Drezner today printed two must-read articles, and I can do little better than to point you to these:

World Politics After Trump's Second Term

In his Substack, op. cit., Professor Daniel W. Drezner cites his own opinion piece in Politico here:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/06/trump-second-term-world-order-00164045

For a bit of comic relief, Professor Drezner plays a part from Ghostbusters (1984), with Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, David Margulies, and Harold Ramis.

https://youtu.be/q0POXW4V1_k

You really, really have to watch the video short to get the emotional impact. I refuse to give any spoiler alert! MUST WATCH!

Part of what Professor Drezner foresees is the diminution of America in the face of Trump’s renewed isolationism and trade wars, with stagflation and a massive shipment of jobs overseas, since Trump’s combat against immigration would enrich other free countries with talent and hard work the immigrant brings.

“Trump would appoint a toady to the Fed,” resulting in printing of fiat money that resembles the hyperinflation of the French Revolution after the fall of the fiscally responsible Finance Minister, Jacques Necker (father of Madame de Staël — who was an inspiration to the leading intellectuals of Napoleanic times in Weimar). There is an economic classic written against the fiats freely released during the French Revolution by Frédéric Bastiat (30 June 1801 - 24 December 1850), who pointed out the inevitable hyperinflation. Something similar occurred during the mid-Twenties in the Weimar Republik.

Professor Drezner points out the American consumer would suffer from the Trump-imposed tariffs, which would barely affect foreign production and output.

In his Politico article, cited above, Professor Drezner forecasts:

Their preferred U.S. foreign economic policy contributed to a buildup of global macroeconomic imbalances that helped trigger the stock market crash of 1929. The economic isolationism behind the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff helped turn the 1929 financial crisis into a decadelong Great Depression — a well-known impact that Trump himself has tried to downplay.

Ironically, as Trump would make Europe more vulnerable to Putin, China’s resistance to Putin’s territorial ambitions in Asia would focus Putin’s attention even stronger toward the West.

Professor Drezner thinks, even in the face of a rightward movement in parts of Europe — with the notable exception of the United Kingdom with the Labour victory for Keir Starmer, Europe would show greater unity and resolve to counter the decline of American influence.

And Professor Drezner sees an increasingly aggressive Asia in face of American weakness under a second Trump administration.

Here is a flavor of Professor Drezner’s view of America’s dystopia in the person of a second Trump administration:

The other condition even more likely to be met is the relative credibility of European deterrence compared to the United States. Or, to put it a different way: as shaky as European support might seem to vulnerable European countries like the Baltic states, it will be viewed as more reliable than U.S. security guarantees after the 2024 election. Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine would likely prove to be the straw that broke the U.S. alliance architecture’s back. Any evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv in the face of Ukrainian protesters and imminent Russian troop arrivals would make the messiness of the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal look insignificant by comparison.

In this Post, I only wanted to memorialize a few points by one of the real masters of Realpolitik.

This Post is a keynote to mark the singular contribution of Professor Daniel W. Drezner, whose work I love to follow!

Please, please link to each of Professor Drezner’s cited contributions. There is so much more that Professor Drezner shares with us!

It is good to share Armando’s post with your friends, because they like free stuff.